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Aligning Validation with Deployment: Target-Weighted Cross-Validation for Spatial Prediction

Brenning, Alexander, Suesse, Thomas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Cross-validation (CV) is commonly used to estimate predictive risk when independent test data are unavailable. Its validity depends on the assumption that validation tasks are sampled from the same distribution as prediction tasks encountered during deployment. In spatial prediction and other settings with structured data, this assumption is frequently violated, leading to biased estimates of deployment risk. We propose Target-Weighted CV (TWCV), an estimator of deployment risk that accounts for discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions, thus accounting for (1) covariate shift and (2) task-difficulty shift. We characterize prediction tasks by descriptors such as covariates and spatial configuration. TWCV assigns weights to validation losses such that the weighted empirical distribution of validation tasks matches the corresponding distribution over a target domain. The weights are obtained via calibration weighting, yielding an importance-weighted estimator that targets deployment risk. Since TWCV requires adequate coverage of the deployment distribution's support, we combine it with spatially buffered resampling that diversifies the task difficulty distribution. In a simulation study, conventional as well as spatial estimators exhibit substantial bias depending on sampling, whereas buffered TWCV remains approximately unbiased across scenarios. A case study in environmental pollution mapping further confirms that discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions can affect performance assessment, and that buffered TWCV better reflects the prediction task over the target domain. These results establish task distribution mismatch as a primary source of CV bias in spatial prediction and show that calibration weighting combined with a suitable validation task generator provides a viable approach to estimating predictive risk under dataset shift.





Supplement to Node Classification on Graphs with Few-Shot Novel Labels via Meta Transformed Network Embedding 1 Additional Algorithm Details 1.1 Details of the Transformation Function

Neural Information Processing Systems

The support nodes are either positive or negative. For the transformation function, we stack multiple computation blocks as shown in Figure 1. The stacking mechanism helps the function capture comprehensive relationships between nodes such that the performance is boosted. In each computation block, there are mainly two modules. The detailed architecture of the self-attention module is illustrated in Figure 1.



Toward PDDL Planning Copilot

Benyamin, Yarin, Mordoch, Argaman, Shperberg, Shahaf S., Stern, Roni

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used as autonomous agents capable of performing complicated tasks. However, they lack the ability to perform reliable long-horizon planning on their own. This paper bridges this gap by introducing the Planning Copilot, a chatbot that integrates multiple planning tools and allows users to invoke them through instructions in natural language. The Planning Copilot leverages the Model Context Protocol (MCP), a recently developed standard for connecting LLMs with external tools and systems. This approach allows using any LLM that supports MCP without domain-specific fine-tuning. Our Planning Copilot supports common planning tasks such as checking the syntax of planning problems, selecting an appropriate planner, calling it, validating the plan it generates, and simulating their execution. We empirically evaluate the ability of our Planning Copilot to perform these tasks using three open-source LLMs. The results show that the Planning Copilot highly outperforms using the same LLMs without the planning tools. We also conducted a limited qualitative comparison of our tool against Chat GPT-5, a very recent commercial LLM. Our results shows that our Planning Copilot significantly outperforms GPT-5 despite relying on a much smaller LLM. This suggests dedicated planning tools may be an effective way to enable LLMs to perform planning tasks.



ec3183a7f107d1b8dbb90cb3c01ea7d5-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Paper ID 10791Title: Information-Theoretic T ask Selection for Meta-Reinforcement LearningWe thank all the reviewers for their thoughtful feedback. Our response can be found below, organized by review.R1 "It is not yet clear how results on such simple "toy" tasks will, if ever, generalize to practically important task distributions. But this current limitation does and should not stop progress towards such seminal contributions."Thank We agree that scalability to more complex settings is challenging (more on this in response to Reviewer 3), but this is a challenge for all of meta-RL. We introduce a method that identifies a clear gap in the literature, and that provides a first solution to the problem, which performs reliably well in a number of current meta-RL benchmarks.


Supplement to Node Classification on Graphs with Few-Shot Novel Labels via Meta Transformed Network Embedding 1 Additional Algorithm Details 1.1 Details of the Transformation Function

Neural Information Processing Systems

The support nodes are either positive or negative. For the transformation function, we stack multiple computation blocks as shown in Figure 1. The stacking mechanism helps the function capture comprehensive relationships between nodes such that the performance is boosted. In each computation block, there are mainly two modules. The detailed architecture of the self-attention module is illustrated in Figure 1.